Gran Fondo Leavenworth: Riding Segments

The winning time last year for the Gran Fondo Leavenworth 2015 was 5 hours 24 minutes (map). Can I get within 10% of the winner? To do that my time would need to be 5 hours and 56 minutes.  In other words, I would need to break six hours. Is that possible?

Gran Fondo Leavenworth - 87 miles (45 gravel) and  9,300 ft of climbing 

If I do the climbs at 11 mph (super hard/impossible) and I do the downhills and the flats at 20 mph and I don't stop for water - a very bad idea - and I don't fall, don't get a flat, and so on and so forth, I would have 2 minutes to spare by the schedule below.

segment         change   miles    time       ft       distance

0 Start                                       1,160    0.0

1 Climb #1      2,910    15.5    1:24         4,070    15.5

2 Downhill      2,540-   9.0     0:27 (1:51)  1,316    25.0

3 Climb #2      1,517    9.5     0:52         2,840    34.5

4 Downhill      1,466-   4.0     0:12 (2:55)  1,374    38.0

5 Flat            643-   20.0    1:00 (3:55)    731    58.0 / check: 60

6 Climb #3      3,250    15.0    1:21 (5:16)  3,981    73.0

7 Downhill      2,734-   14.0    0:42 (5:58)  1,247    87.0

                

Total           7,677    87.0    5:58

The ride begins at 8:00 AM.  So, basically, to break 6 hours I would need to be done with the second downhill and be on the 20 mile stretch of road by 11:00 AM and I would need to start the final climb at 12 Noon. And, at 12 Noon I would need to be feeling really, really good because that climb appears to be very HARD. So, I have two (very demanding) benchmarks.

Big unknowns: (1) averaging 11 mph uphill is likely a stretch (5 mph might be more reasonable on climb #3); (2) averaging 20 mph on the downhills might be impossible if there are a lot of sketchy and scary ruts and gravel (likely); (3) there might be a head wind along the river (and I'm likely to be on my own, time-trialing); (4) it might be hot and I won't be aclimatized; and (5) there's likely to be rural traffic, necessitating a good margin of caution.

  

Hmmm. More doable may be 15% (6 hours and 12 minutes) or  20% (6 hour 28 minutes). In 2015, at Gran Fondo Winthrop I was 26% behind the winner (on not a great day) and at Gran Fondo Ellensburg I was 17% behind. So, 10% is a real reach; still this year I will have much better training, 10 pounds less body weight, better gearing, and much better wheels and tires (and, alas, in both previous Gran Fondos in 2015 I flatted).

Whatever, I'll try to ride with élan and care, embrace what the day offers, and go as well as my legs and bicycle will take me.